After a year marked by economic uncertainty and political change both in Canada and abroad, 2026 is shaping up to be a reset year for the Canadian housing market. With more homes coming to market, borrowing costs easing, and competition cooling, conditions are expected to slowly encourage buyers to re-enter the market in the year ahead.
Nationally, the aggregate price of a home is forecast to remain largely stable, rising a modest 1.0% year over year to $823,016 by the fourth quarter of 2026. The median price of a single-family detached home is projected to increase 2.0% to $876,934, while condominium prices are expected to decline 2.5% to $563,918.
“Strong underlying market fundamentals, including lower interest rates, increased housing supply, and reduced competition, have created a more favourable environment for consumers,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “First-time buyers and those shopping in Canada’s most expensive markets have a rare opportunity to move forward with homeownership plans at more accessible price points. While a sharp rebound is unlikely, improved affordability should help rebuild confidence among buyers and sellers, supporting steady and sustainable price growth in 2026.”
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“Mortgage rates are no longer the main obstacle,” Soper added. “Borrowing costs have stabilized at levels that support healthy market activity. Buyers now have clarity and confidence to move forward without fear of missing out on lower rates down the road. That certainty alone will help unlock demand.”
Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to be a transition year for the housing market, with improved affordability and calmer conditions continuing to favour buyers. Activity is forecast to build gradually, and if the spring market aligns with steadier economic and trade conditions, buyer confidence could strengthen further.